Holiday Returns Spike in January: How Shops Staff for It
Holiday returns peak in January, with returns running 25 to 35 percent above normal in the last week of December and 8 to 15 percent above baseline through the first two weeks of January. The shops that survive it staff for a second peak, not a slow month.
The holiday rush ends on Christmas Day and the returns rush starts the day after. Boxes pile up at the warehouse dock, the customer service queue triples, and the team that just worked through December is asked to do it again in January, this time in reverse.
The January spike is not a surprise to anyone who has run a shop through it once, and the numbers behind it are specific enough to plan around. The question is not whether it comes, it is whether the staffing plan treats January as a second peak or a slow month.
January is the real peak
Adobe measured the shape of it: returns run 25 to 35 percent above normal in the final week of December, then stay 8 to 15 percent above baseline through the first two weeks of January. The peak is not a single day, it is a three-week wave, and the first week of January is the hardest part of it.
Most returns arrive fast. About 82 percent of returns come back within a month of purchase, which means the January wave is mostly December purchases, not November ones. The gift returns and the wrong-size exchanges land together, and they land early.
The fraud share rises with the volume. About 9 percent of returns are fraudulent, and the holiday wave is when the abuse patterns are hardest to spot, because a legitimate gift return and a wardrobing return look identical at the dock.
What the numbers say about the spike
The scale of returns in 2025 puts January in context. About 19.3 percent of online sales were returned, against 15.8 percent across all channels, for a total of $849.9 billion in returned merchandise. Holiday sales return at about 17 percent, which is higher than the annual average and concentrated in a few weeks.
The return rate is not evenly spread. Apparel and footwear return at far higher rates than electronics or home goods, and the shops that feel January hardest are the ones selling the categories with the highest return rates. A home goods shop and a fashion shop do not have the same January.
The staffing numbers show how shops respond. About 49 percent of retailers lean on a third-party logistics provider for the wave, 43 percent hire seasonal returns staff, and 37 percent extend return windows to spread the volume out. The three moves overlap, and the shops that use all three are the ones that keep the queue moving.
How shops staff for it
The first move is to extend the window before the wave hits. A 30-day window that starts on the purchase date creates a cliff in early January, while a window that runs to the end of January spreads the same volume over three more weeks. Extending the window is the cheapest staffing move there is.
The second move is to separate the gift returns from the rest. Gift receipts, no-receipt returns, and exchanges need different handling at the dock, and a separate queue for gift returns keeps the standard returns moving. The gift queue is slower per item, and mixing it with the fast queue slows everything down.
The third move is to staff the dock, not just the inbox. The bottleneck in January is physical, not digital: boxes arriving faster than they can be opened, inspected, and dispositioned. Seasonal staff on the dock, not on the phones, is where the money goes furthest.
Related reading
Readers working through “Holiday Returns Spike in January: How Shops Staff for It” often find these earlier guides useful as well: Restocking Fees: The Price of Opening the Box, Damaged or Defective Returns: The Policy That Keeps the Customer, and Return Exchanges vs Refunds: The Exchange Saves the Sale.
Frequently asked questions
When do holiday returns peak?
Returns run 25 to 35 percent above normal in the final week of December and stay 8 to 15 percent above baseline through the first two weeks of January, according to Adobe. The peak is a three-week wave, not a single day, and the first week of January is the hardest part.
What percentage of holiday sales get returned?
About 17 percent of holiday sales are returned, against 19.3 percent of online sales across the full year in 2025. Total returned merchandise in 2025 was about $849.9 billion. About 82 percent of returns come back within a month of purchase.
How do retailers staff for January returns?
About 49 percent lean on a third-party logistics provider, 43 percent hire seasonal returns staff, and 37 percent extend return windows to spread the volume. Extending the window is the cheapest move, and staffing the dock matters more than staffing the phones, since the bottleneck is physical.
Do return rates go up after Christmas?
Yes, and the fraud share rises with the volume. About 9 percent of returns are fraudulent, and the holiday wave is when abuse patterns are hardest to spot, because a legitimate gift return and a wardrobing return look identical at the dock.